Are covid vaccines the superspread vector for omicron? It’s really starting to look that way.

by el gato malo 5 hr ago 497likes 255 comments

i’ve spoken quite a lot about why leaky vaccines drive viral evolution to select for vaccine advantage. rolling out non-sterilizing vaccines is is terrible idea. it’s like only taking half your course of antibiotics and then wondering why MRSA is suddenly everywhere. it’s just a selector for resistance and advantage. the basic mechanism is really very simple: antigens that were recessive become dominant in order to evade the fixated immune response generated by an inoculant that did not work to stop colonization, carriage, and contagion.

this is the simple, predictable, and inevitable outcome of herd level antigenic fixation whereby most people are all locked into the same increasingly ineffective immune response and fail to generate new responses when faced with novel pathogens. this gets called OAS/hoskins effect.

it’s also how you get a throwback variant like omicron which did not descend from delta but looks to be a second serotype whose last common ancestor with D was pre-alpha. it was a going nowhere failed mutation that lacked evolutionary fitness. but then the world changed and vaccines selected for omicron. it’s just simple evo pressure that works like this.

and it looks to be intensifying rapidly. since the emergence of omicron and especially of some of its later sub-variants, particularly the BA series, there has been dramatic change in viral behavior.

we saw the canary in the covid mine in the UK where risk rates were blowing out and even as they switched to “3 dose boosted” to measure relative effect, the fact that risk rates were not only higher in the vaxxed than unvaxxed, but rising fast over time became unavoidable.

covid was already vaccine advantaged, but was rapidly becoming more and more so. full data HERE.

notoriously, this led the UK to discontinue reporting of this series. it appeared they suddenly did not want to talk about this anymore. but it’s cropping up everywhere.

it can now be seen in UK all cause deaths data.

we also saw it in some US hospitalization data.

and in the data from israel.

this set me to wondering where else we might test this theory that “more injection = more infection,” especially with new variants.

the timeframe for investigation was easy to pin down so we have the makings of a testable hypothesis:

if these variants are more vaxx enabled, we’ll see more rise in prevalence in places of high vaccination.

if this prevalence is swamping the lower virulence of the variant, we will also see a rise in severe outcomes (because 4X cases at 1/2 severity is still 2X the number of severe outcomes)

so here we go:

i reached out to longtime gatopal™ and noted datahawk ben to get a look at some US data that he is far better at automating and slicing than i.

the results were extremely provocative…

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