The West’s Green Delusions Empowered Putin
How has Vladimir Putin—a man ruling a country with an economy smaller than that of Texas, with an average life expectancy 10 years lower than that of France—managed to launch an unprovoked full-scale assault on Ukraine?
There is a deep psychological, political and almost civilizational answer to that question: He wants Ukraine to be part of Russia more than the West wants it to be free. He is willing to risk tremendous loss of life and treasure to get it. There are serious limits to how much the U.S. and Europe are willing to do militarily. And Putin knows it.
Missing from that explanation, though, is a story about material reality and basic economics—two things that Putin seems to understand far better than his counterparts in the free world and especially in Europe.
Putin knows that Europe produces 3.6 million barrels of oil a day but uses 15 million barrels of oil a day. Putin knows that Europe produces 230 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year but uses 560 billion cubic meters. He knows that Europe uses 950 million tons of coal a year but produces half that.
The former KGB agent knows Russia produces 11 million barrels of oil per day but only uses 3.4 million. He knows Russia now produces over 700 billion cubic meters of gas a year but only uses around 400 billion. Russia mines 800 million tons of coal each year but uses 300.
That’s how Russia ends up supplying about 20 percent of Europe’s oil, 40 percent of its gas, and 20 percent of its coal.
The math is simple. A child could do it.
The reason Europe didn’t have a muscular deterrent threat to prevent Russian aggression—and in fact prevented the U.S. from getting allies to do more—is that it needs Putin’s oil and gas…
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He who borrows is a slave to the lender. Being on the wrong side of a trade imbalance is civilizational borrowing, or, slavery. As with all debt funded lifestyles, it takes time before one realizes they are on the wrong side of the interest rate compounding curve – in the case of trade, it is not compounding interest but compounding *means of production* that is eating away at the heart.
This article is key to understanding where this conflict will ultimately go. It will not go in favor of the dilettantes who are putting Ukraine emojis on their social media profiles and making angry faces at Putin. They are doomed – weak, flabby, self absorbed consumers who have forgotten how to produce and save. Their alternate woke reality is about to meet the real deal.