Of fear and intimidation, pesky stats, and “superspreaders”

Reprinted with permission from William M. Briggs:

Coronvirus Update XIX: UPDATE: Screw Spikes, Surges, Records In New Cases

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update IIUpdate IVUpdate VUpdate VIUpdate VIIUpdate VIIIUpdate IXUpdate XUpdate XIUpdate XIIUpdate XIIIUpdate XIVUpdate XV, XVI (doesn’t exist), Update XVIIUpdate XVIIIEstimated True Infections/CasesBayes Theorem & Coronavirus, and the Sanity Check Perspective, so go to them first before asking what-about-this-and-that. Skip to the bottom for the latest model. Thanks to everybody emailing me sources, including Ted Poppke, Jeff Jorgensen, Jim Fedako, Joe Bastardi, Philip Pilkington, John Buckner, Harry Goff, John Goetz, Warren McGee, Robert Kinney III, Paul Hainey, Darren Nelson. https://wmbriggs.com/post/30606/. I’m way, way behind emails.

It’s All Politics

Coronadoom is now entirely political.

Unfortunately, the only way to overcome bad politics is with the thing that shall not be mentioned, or good politics.

Update More proof of political bullshit: Oregon county issues face mask order that exempts non-white people.

Push back against the lies, distortions, and absolute bullshit. They are losing control too soon before the election, they don’t like it, and they’re scrambling.

It is bullshit. Every approved flak, academic, and pol said screw social distancing if rioting, looting, and mayhem was your goal, just as these same bottom feeders said social distance was a must if attending a Trump rally. Or in opening businesses by other than skateboard through the window.

Our enemies want you to forget the headlines above (we had several last week, too). They are hoping you are stupid enough to believe what they tell you because they are in charge.

Look out your window. It is clear we are living in a time when those above us are the dumbest of any leaders in all of history. Want more proof?

In shift, Florida Keys now requiring face masks until June 2021

“Visitors to the Florida Keys will need to bring along face masks or face a $500 civil fine.” This is done purely to humiliate you and show you who’s boss. Ignore the order. Depose the government.

Need more?

They changed the headline on this story, which I should have screenshot. It was originally “WHO chief warns coronavirus pandemic accelerating“. It’s now something about Brazil, but you can see the original in the URL.

“‘We are in a new and dangerous phase,’ Tedros said at a news conference in Geneva Friday, and he warned that lockdown measures are still needed to halt the virus’ spread.”

This is bullshit. This is an outright lie, pure power politics.

I’ve been telling us for months (yes, months) that the only number that we can really trust is the all-cause weekly deaths. Everything else can be, and is, fudged, especially in the media.

We’re not the only ones who are noticing. Axios: U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Increasing, But Deaths Aren’t — Yet. Key sentence “‘The death rate always lags several weeks behind the infection rate,’ top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci told me.”

Fraudci! No handshakes forever Faudci! Ignore him.

They’re also pushing “hospitalizations.” After lockdowns eased, people started to go to the doc for complaints they’ve been waiting on. They get tested. Lo, coronavirus is found. And the cancer patient (or whatever) is now listed as a coronavirus hospitalization.


All Cause Deaths

This is the per capita all-cause weekly deaths. As usual, the last two weeks are under-reported. It can take up to eight weeks, the CDC says, for the full report, but two is more usual. There is no sense in this data that it’s anything but getting better.

Here’s the blowup (actual numbers, not per capita).

The dashed line is the all-cause minus official COVID deaths. Even accounting for late reporting, it is clear this crisis is over. Finished. Kaput. Done. Finis.

Everything the media and politicians are pushing is hype, meant now only to control, to manipulate. Do not submit.


That’s the official CDC weekly COVID deaths, up through 19 June, the latest numbers available. These numbers are likely exaggerated, as we saw from the all-cause deaths above. But there is still no sense whatsoever that it’s getting worse.

Here are the reported — i.e. MEDIA — numbers. They are not the same as the CDC numbers. They are higher, by at least 10% everywhere. The media has been using higher numbers all along, and they continue to do so. They cannot be trusted.

Ignore the model if you’re a skeptic; it clearly is pulled down too much by the huge spike in the middle. Doesn’t matter. Point is, even the media numbers are down and heading further south.

I left all the other material out, like in how infections are about 70 million, and testing is turning up old cases. I wanted to this to be succinct as possible. Every time you hear somebody pushing fear, show them the plots above.


Finally other people are making official what we’ve been telling you for the last eight weeks:

Here it is, what I left off, the estimated infections/cases, and reported cases (in black).

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