(the markets will love this, because it all but ensures a Fed rate cut next month. -nvp)
The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.
The revision to the total payrolls level is the largest since 2009… Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures… the report could be seen as an indication that the labor market is not as strong as the previous BLS reporting had made it out to be. That in turn could provide further impetus for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
“The labor market appears weaker than originally reported,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting.”
Remember when everyone said all economic indicators said we weren’t in a recession and that the economy was good, despite your personal experience? We all knew better. But no one will notice this or change their vote.
Want to know how I know Obama is still running things? He’s the one that started these “corrections” during his administration.
And it’s still his administration. Which is why Kamala is going to be president. No matter what.
My father told me, perhaps 10 years ago or so when he was an investment broker, that markets and BLS statistics were no longer to be considered “economic indicators”. First, because markets were swung not by economic forces, but by algorithms and such, so that the trading volumes don’t actually reflect any real economic activity, especially since most volume was done through investment firms and products like IRAs, etc. Second, he point out that BLS numbers have a list of variables a mile long. The reason a “jobs report” can be adjusted is because the list of variables needs to be accounted for. If BLS says jobs are up by 1m, when you actually funnel the variables, it’s more like jobs are up by 200K. Big difference. Same with “real wages”. They have been reporting “real wages” increases since Barry the Fairy. Yet in the classical sense, “real wages” have actually gone down.
Well the reason why they started using models is because models only spit out what they want you to. Same reason for years there’s no real floor trading in stocks. It’s models/algorithms. And that’s why stocks are so inflated. We are in deep deep trouble.
Governments statistics are statistical estimates using models that are constructed from the assumptions of the interested politicians and bureaucrats invested in the outcomes. They are not hard data, *they are estimated data*, the truthfulness of which is open to interpretation. These estimates are refined as time goes by and additional data is added.
“Where Do You Get Jobs Growth Numbers? (Investopedia quote):
The Bureau of Labor Statistics gets job growth data from a survey of 122,000 businesses and government agencies, *which account for about 20% of the total U.S. nonfarm employment*.”
The methodology of statistical models is discussed here (Bureau of Labor Statistics – BLS):
https://www.bls.gov/bls/empsitquickguide.htm
Like so much else, imo, government statistical models are ripe for manipulation and deception. They present them as facts. BLS statistics are, like the NIH models that gave us insanely inflated Covid infection estimates prior to the political lockdown decisions, not just professional data products but even more they are political products, math models tweaked and manipulated to achieve a desired outcome.
BLS. Bureau of lies and scams. That is all
As my father told me years ago.,,
Liars figure and figures lie!
There is a reason governments use statistics like GDP per capita instead of medians.
There are 161,000,000 employed in the US.
The official unemployment rate is 3.64%, or 5,860,400.
That revision of 880,000 (68,000/month) is a 15% error in the unemployment rate.
And no one is talking about it.
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/jorge-bonilla/2024/08/21/abc-only-network-report-massive-downward-jobs-revision
La-De-Da
Just like the “pandemic” models that were pathetic let’s-pretend make-believe politics dressed up in a stupid statistical math model, the numbers produced by the fake statistics equation render whatever is on the right side of the = sign worse than useless … a lie. And not just any ol’ lie, but a lie with purpose.
I think most people get this by now, though. Only the perps and their allies and their useful idiots give credence to the “telly” and its talking heads any more.
I honestly think I can many of their scams because I don’t watch television. Edward Bernays tells us in his book “Propaganda” that the media is needed in democracy so an individual doesn’t get many, if not any, ideas different from society—otherwise democracy cannot work.